On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes.

Wind-generated waves are dominant drivers of coastal dynamics and vulnerability, which have considerable impacts on littoral ecosystems and socioeconomic activities. It is therefore paramount to improve coastal hazards predictions through the better understanding of connections between wave activity and climate variability. In the Pacific, the dominant climate mode is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has known a renaissance of scientific interest leading to great theoretical advances in the past decade. Yet studies on ENSO's coastal impacts still rely on the oversimplified picture of the canonical dipole across the Pacific. Here, we consider the full ENSO variety to delineate its essential teleconnection pathways to tropical and extratropical storminess. These robust seasonally modulated relationships allow us to develop a mathematical model of coastal wave modulation essentially driven by ENSO's complex temporal and spatial behavior. Accounting for this nonlinear climate control on Pan-Pacific wave activity leads to a much better characterization of waves' seasonal to interannual variability (+25% in explained variance) and intensity of extremes (+60% for strong ENSO events), therefore paving the way for significantly more accurate forecasts than formerly possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal hazards.

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping.

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.

Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability.

Despite playing a major role in global ocean heat storage, the Southern Ocean remains the most sparsely measured region of the global ocean. Here, a unique 25-year temperature time-series of the upper 800 m, repeated several times a year across the Southern Ocean, allows us to document the long-term change within water-masses and how it compares to the interannual variability. Three regions stand out as having strong trends that dominate over interannual variability: warming of the subantarctic waters (0.29 ± 0.09 °C per decade); cooling of the near-surface subpolar waters (-0.07 ± 0.04 °C per decade); and warming of the subsurface subpolar deep waters (0.04 ± 0.01 °C per decade). Although this subsurface warming of subpolar deep waters is small, it is the most robust long-term trend of our section, being in a region with weak interannual variability. This robust warming is associated with a large shoaling of the maximum temperature core in the subpolar deep water (39 ± 09 m per decade), which has been significantly underestimated by a factor of 3 to 10 in past studies. We find temperature changes of comparable magnitude to those reported in Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas, which calls for a reconsideration of current ocean changes with important consequences for our understanding of future Antarctic ice-sheet mass loss.

Quasi-planktonic behavior of foraging top marine predators.

Monitoring marine top predators is fundamental for assessing the health and functioning of open ocean ecosystems. Although recently tracking observations have substantially increased, factors determining the horizontal exploration of the ocean by marine predators are still largely unknown, especially at the scale of behavioral switches (1-100 km, days-weeks). It is commonly assumed that the influence of water movement can be neglected for animals capable of swimming faster than the current. Here, we challenge this assumption by combining the use of biologging (GPS and accelerometry), satellite altimetry and in-situ oceanographic data (ADCP and drifting buoys) to investigate the effect of the mesoscale ocean dynamics on a marine predator, the southern elephant seal. A Lagrangian approach reveals that trajectories of elephant seals are characterized by quasi-planktonic bouts where the animals are horizontally drifting. These bouts correspond to periods of increased foraging effort, indicating that in the quasi-planktonic conditions energy is allocated to diving and chasing, rather than in horizontal search of favourable grounds. These results suggest that mesoscale features like eddies and fronts may act as a focal points for trophic interactions not only by bottom-up modulation of nutrient injection, but also by directly entraining horizontal displacements of the upper trophic levels.